CO中毒的环境气象因子分析及预测方法研究

Study on carbon monoxide poisoning with environmental meteorological factors analysis and potential forecast model

利用2006年9月2007年3月全国CO中毒病例资料,选取日发病人数为8人以上的CO中毒事件发生日作为样本,对CO中毒的气象条件进行了分析研究.结果表明,微风或者静风、大气层结稳定的气象条件不利于CO气体的扩散,同时,气温变幅较小、气压下降、云量多和气体湿度大也可能间接导致CO中毒事件的发生.用风速、大气稳定度、24h变温、24h变压、总云量和相对湿度作为预报因子,利用阈值加权平均的方法,初步建立了区域性CO中毒气象潜势预报模型.

According to carbon monoxide poisoning data during September of 2006 to March of 2007 all over the country,choosing the carbon monoxide events with over eight sufferers as statistic samples,the relationship between carbon monoxide poisoning events and the meteorological conditions was analyzed.The results indicated that scant wind or silent wind and steady stratified atmosphere are the meteorological conditions unfavorable to the gas of carbon monoxide diffusing,at the same time,less temperature change,air pressure falling,more total cloud cover and high air humidity are also likely to carbon monoxide poisoning occurrence indirectly.Wind speed,stability of atmosphere,temperature variation in twenty-four hours,pressure variation in twenty-four hours,total cloud amount and relative humidity as predictors were used to build regional carbon monoxide poisoning potential model with meteorological forecast through a mathematic weighted-average technology.