公共卫生支出、健康人力资本与经济增长

Public Health Expenditure,Health Human Capital and Economic Growth

本文通过构建随机动态一般均衡模型(DSGE)和基于该模型的数值模拟,分析了公共卫生支出、健康人力资本和经济增长的关系。主要结论有:从长期看,扩大公共卫生支出、医疗技术革新均会带来宏观经济的繁荣和居民福利的提升;从短期看,恶性突发卫生事件的冲击将给宏观经济的波动带来显著的负面影响,但这一影响一般会在短期内得以消除。本文进一步借助中国1998～2008年的面板数据,以数据包络分析(DEA)得到的公共卫生支出投入产出效率作为健康人力资本的代理变量,进行计量分析后发现:健康人力资本对本地区和相邻地区的经济增长均有显著的促进作用;在经济增长水平较高、健康人力资本集聚的地区,健康人力资本可以更有效地促进经济增长,即存在显著的门限效应。

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE） to describe the macroeconomic effects of public health expenditure and health human capital. Based on the results of numerical simulations, this paper finds some useful results. In the long-term, enlarging the public expenditure on health and medical technology reform could make prosperity of macro economy. In the short-term, shocks from virulent incident could bring negative effects for macro economy but these effects will disappear in short order. In order to verify the contribution of health human capital on economic growth, this paper employs the panel data from 1998 to 2008 of 30 provinces in China and uses several kinds of panel regression methods. Based on the index which was constructed by DEA to denote the health human capital, we find that the local health human capital has positive effects on the economic growth in the local and hearby aera and there are threshold effects prominently.