民众战争态度构型演化建模与仿真研究

Study on Modeling and Simulating of Evolution of Attitudes Dynamics toward War of People

在战争的演化模型的研究中,为了控制和引导社会舆论,民众战争态度演化是战争复杂系统研究的重要内容之一。考虑持不同战争态度的社会个体之间的相互作用率与其态度距离的关系和从众心理,提出了度量持不同态度社会个体相遇的相互作用率。分析了态度演化的三种过程,确定了不同态度之间转变的转移概率密度,建立了战争态度演化的动力学方程模型。引入一个序参量度量持各种战争态度人数的动态变化,定义了战争态度构型演化的相。仿真结果表明,得到外界支持的态度,最终持有的人数在社会中占多数,外界作用对社会民众态度转变,对大多数人是有效的,但有极少数人仍会坚持原来的态度。

Evolution of the attitude towards war of the people is an important issue of the war complex system.The interaction rate was presented to measure the different individual＇s attitude towards war based on taking account of the distance of different attitude and the rule that one always followed the thing did by most people.The process of different attitude changing was analyzed and the transition probability density function was researched.Then a model described by kinetic equation was constructed.An order parameter is introduced to describe the dynamic changes in number of people with different attitude towards war.And the phase of the configuration was defined by it.The simulation results show that the number of people with the supported attitude was major,And the action of the persuaders is effective for most people,but is invalid for the people who hold on their opinion.