地形因子对海南岛台风降水分布影响的估算

Estimate of topography influences on precipitation distribution during typhoon process in Hainan Island

台风登陆过程中,地形对台风降水有明显的作用,及时了解台风过程中降水的空间分布信息对灾害预测预警有着重要的意义。基于最小二乘的多元线性回归方法,利用1953-2005年间登陆海南岛的台风(不包括其他热带气旋)的降水资料,建立了台风过程中年平均降水量与地形因子(地形高程、坡度、坡向)的关系模型,估算了海南岛台风过程中降水量的分布,分析了地形对其的影响,为后期台风灾害过程中降水的地形影响分析提供参考。

Topography can influence the precipitation distribution during typhoon process,so it is important to understand the spatial distribution of precipitation for typhoon forecasting and early warning.Based on partial least squares regression and precipitation data of typhoons landing on Hainan Island（not including the other tropical cyclone）from 1953 to 2005,relation model between annual mean precipitation and topographical factors（terrain elevation,slope,aspect） was built to estimate the precipitation distribution in Hainan Island,to analyze precipitation influence from topography,which may give a reference to analysis of topographic influence on precipitation in later stage of typhoon disaster process.