城市公交客运量的组合预测研究

Study of Combine-Forecast Method for Passenger Volume of Urban Public Transit System

公交客运量预测是公交线网规划与改进的重要依据,以往学者多采用单一的预测方法进行预测,预测精度偏低。本文采用组合预测法对公交客运量进行预测,该方法提高了预测的精度,为科学地制定公交线网进行了有益尝试,带来了社会效益和经济效益的改变,与以往方法相比有了明显的增加。基于这样一种思路,本文以南昌市公交客运量为例,对南昌市公交客运量进行了模拟预测,并对预测结果进行了相关验算,得到了预期结果,显示出组合预测法比单一的预测方法优越,适用于城市公交客运量预测。

The prediction for the volume of passengers transported by public transit is the important base for the programming and improvement of public traffic net work,The former scholars predicted in a single prediction method and the precision was low.This paper use combine-forecast method to predict the public transit passenger volume,it enhance the forecast predicts and lay the foundation for establishing the public traffic network,bring about social and economic benefits＇change that better than before.So this paper utilize this method in the public transit passenger volume of Nanchang city,it indicates that the predicting method is better than the single prediction method and the predicting method apply to predicting the passenger volume of urban public transit system.