境外人民币期货的现状与趋势分析

Status and Prospects of the Overseas RMB Futures Market

经过近五年的发展,境外人民币期货取得了一些进步,但是交易量仍然偏小,市场关注度不高,期货市场对即期汇率的影响较弱。本文从交易需求的角度分析了导致这种状况的原因,结合部分国家金融自由化的经验,对境外人民币期货的发展趋势进行了分析,并得到了人民币汇率改革和国际化进程的相关启示。

The RMB overseas foreign exchange futures market has made substantial progress during the past 5 years, however, the trading volume, compared with other emerging market currencies, is still relatively small. The impact of the futures market on the spot rate is weaker than that of the NDF market. This article attempts to look deeply inside the RMB futures market, specifically from the perspective of trading demand. Based on the experiences of financial liberalization in some other countries, a preliminary prediction over the future of this market is given. Finally, some implications from the development process of overseas RMB futures markets are obtained.