CBA、NBA竞争实力均衡与现场观众关系的经验研究

Analysis on Competitive Balance and Fan Attendance of CBA and NBA

以CBA和NBA为案例,采集横截面、时间序列、面板3个层面的经验数据,基于HHI方法度量职业体育竞争实力均衡,依托计量经济学分析方法,验证联盟制度安排准则与现场观众参与之间的关联关系。研究结果显示,俱乐部所在城市规模、城市居民的收入水平与观众人数呈现显著的正向关联关系,从经验视角验证职业体育联盟在设定俱乐部准入制度时为何总是青睐大型城市的缘由;俱乐部获胜百分比的估计系数为正,与观众人数呈现显著的正向关联,HHI的估计系数为负,与观众人数呈现显著的负向关联关系,均验证比赛结果不确定性是吸引观众持续关注比赛的基本假设。尽管CBA和NBA的经验结果呈现一定的差异,但在验证基本假设方面呈现一致性。因此,以竞争实力均衡为CBA制度设计准则,是CBA吸引观众关注、健康良性运营的关键。

Based on the cross-section data, time series data and panel data analysis, the relationship between competitive balance and fan attendance of CBA and NBA have been examined. The article adopted HHI as a measurement of competitive balance and make a research on the econometric method. The research result shows that the population and per capita income were generally consistent with expectation and explain why the league is always favored large cities in setting the barriers to entry for professional sports club. The winning percentage was positive and significant, the estimated coefficient of HHI was also negative and significant. It confirms that improvements in competitive balance have a positive impact on league attendance. The empirical result has difference between CBA and NBA on the panel data analysis, but as same as the relationship between competitive balance and fan attendance. Therefore, it is key and core point to use competitive balance as the CBA system design criteria when enhancing the CBA fans attention and healthy development.