宏观经济因素、企业家信心与公司融资选择

Macroeconomics Conditions,Entrepreneurial Confidence and Corporate Financing Choices

本文研究经济周期、信贷风险、信贷配给、股市表现和企业家信心对公司融资选择的影响,发现宏观经济上行时,公司的融资偏好为"股权—债务",而宏观经济衰退时,公司的融资偏好则调整为"债务一股权";信贷配给增加后,股权融资的概率上升;银行不良贷款不影响公司融资选择;企业家对经济前景越有信心,债务融资的可能性就越大。研究结果表明,我国上市公司不存在单一的股权融资偏好,而且公司融资决策基本符合最优融资顺序理论。

This paper analyzes whether and to what extent business cycle, credit risk, credit quota, stock market performance and entrepreneurial confidence affect corporate financing choices. It is found that corporate financing behavior varies with business cycles. Firms prefer equity to debt when conditions improve but prefer debt to equity when macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. In addition, when loan quota increases, probability of equity financing increases. However, default risks are uncorrelated with financing choices. Moreover, when entrepreneurs are more confident about the future prospects of the economy, they will choose debt over equity financing. Overall, the empirical results indicate that firms do not prefer ＂equity financing, and that financing choices are broadly consistent with the pecking order theory but are against the trade-off theory.