淮河流域单季稻气候风险研究

Assessing on Climate Risk to Rice in Huai River Basin

综合考虑单季稻气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建单季稻的风险度模型,运用滑动建模技术对淮河流域单季稻的气候风险性进行了动态分析与评估。根据风险分布将淮河流域单季稻温度、降水、日照和气候风险大致分为三种类型:低风险型、中风险型和高风险型;在时间变化上,近几十年来,淮河流域单季稻气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势;并随着时间的推移,在空间上东部风险较低的区域有逐渐降低的趋势,而西部气候风险高的地区有进一步增大并向东部沿海扩展的趋势。

A climate risk assessment model,based on the suitability model,is established combining with the mean suitability level and the influence of the climate change.Using the glide modeling technology,the article analyzed and assessed the climate risk to rice of Huaihe River Basin.Considering the temperature,precipitation,hours of sunlight and climate risk degree for rice,the article divided Huaihe River Basin into three types of regions： the low risk region,the medium risk region and the high risk region.In recent years,the climate risk to rice has an increasing trend in the Huaihe River Basin.The low risk region of the eastern has the decreasing trend,on the contrary,high risk region of the western Huaihe River Basin has the increasing trend,even will be possibility extending to eastern coastal regions in the future.