金融危机背景下土地资源宏观调控政策绩效评估

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF MACROSCOPIC CONTROLS OF LAND AND RESOURCES POLICIES UNDER GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

在分析土地供应与宏观经济指标关系的基础上,针对2008年全球金融危机背景下的扩大内需政策,采用三级树状式指标体系结构,选取土地宏观调控政策绩效评估指标,确定指标权重,构建评估体系。结果显示:2009年第四季度绩效综合指数最高;影响"促进经济平稳增长"的土地资源宏观调控政策绩效指数大小的主要是经济效益指数和政策执行指数;除其他用地外,土地供应总量、住宅用地和工矿仓储用地都与经济效益指数强相关,而与社会效益指数强相关的只有工矿仓储用地。得出以下结论:政策实施对经济形势下滑趋势起到遏制作用,对经济和社会发展起到了"V"反弹的促进作用;政策实施效果呈边际效益递减,政策出台时机很重要;政策实施效果的时滞性明显,制定政策要有前瞻性;土地资源参与宏观调控仍需持续创新。

This paper, based on relation between land supply and macroscopic economic indexes, analyzes the expanding internal demand policy during 2008 global financial crisis, applies tree index structure, and selects indexes for performance evaluation of land macroscopic control policies, gives them weights to establish an evaluation system. The results show that the performance index is highest in the fourth quarter in 2009, and largely related to economic efficiency index and policy execution index. Gross land supply quantity, housing land and industrial land have a strong relation to economic efficiency index, only industrial land to social efficiency index. This paper draws a conclusion that policy execution can improve economic and social development with a descending marginal efficiency, and has an obvious time-lagging effect. Innovation is necessary for land resources to macroscopic controls.