不确定性条件下产能过剩的纵向一体化模型

A Model on Vertical Integration Based on Surplus Production Capacity under uncertainty

通过Hart-Tirole模型的扩展和延伸,分析了不确定性条件下,产能过剩行业的纵向一体化动机、条件及影响,得出了一些新的结论:当下游企业间规模和成本差异不大时,完全一体化会出现;在不确定性条件下,上游产能过剩为上下游企业纵向一体化创造了动机,该动机随并购成本下降而增加;纵向一体化的排斥效应将导致上游过剩产能退出市场,退出的可能性随上游企业单位产品投资成本的增加而增加。

Through the extension of the Hart-Tirole model, this paper analyses the motivation, condition, and the influence of vertical integration in industries with surplus production capacity under uncertainty. When the differences between the scale and cost of a downstream firm are little, eager bandwagon never appears. Under uncertainty, the upstream surplus production capacity creates motivations for vertical inte- gration of both upstream and downstream firms, and the motivation becomes stronger with the decline of the M＆A cost. The exclusion effect of vertical integration possibly makes upstream surplus production capacity exit from market, and the likelihood of such exit becomes higher with the increase of upstream-firm investment cost of unit product.