高风险场所安全防范系统不确定性分析与评估

The analysis and assessment on the uncertainty of security protection system in high-risk areas

安全防范系统运行的有效性是保证被防护对象的关键。然而,安全防范系统本身及其运行环境存在多种不确定性因素,这些不确定性的存在将导致场所内存在很大的风险性,如果分析处理不当会产生严重的后果。在给出物理系统不确定性模型的基础上,分析了安全防范系统中存在的不确定性因素,提出了层次分析和灰色理论相结合的方法,评估不确定风险因素的权重,实现对入侵报警系统不确定性的评估。

The efficient operation of security protection system is the key to the safety of protected objects.However,in the security protection system and its running environment,there are many uncertainty factors which will bring high risks to the objects.The consequences will be serious if the analysis and handling of the factors are improper.In this paper,the uncertainty factors of security protection system are analyzed based on the uncertainty model of physical system,and a method combining the gray theory and the analytic hierarchical analysis is put forward for calculating the weight of uncertainty factors and assessing the uncertainty of intruder alarm system.