动量轮维纳过程退化建模与寿命预测

Momentum wheel Wiener process degradation modeling and life prediction

针对动量轮寿命预测无失效数据问题,利用有漂移的维纳过程对其轴承温度建立性能退化模型,同时,考虑由于加工工艺、制造误差等因素所造成的不确定性,利用随机变量来描述其漂移参数和扩散参数,并结合自助法获取纠偏估计.根据所建模型仿真了轴承温度维纳过程的样本路径,最后,对动量轮进行随机失效阈值情形的寿命预测和剩余寿命预测.该模型为动量轮退化建模与寿命预测提供了一种方法,理论与方法可推广用于类似的高可靠、长寿命产品的退化建模和寿命预测.

For the problem that there is no failure data to use in momentum wheel＇s life prediction,a model of the degradation of momentum wheel＇ bear temperature was established using Wiener process with drift.At the same time,considering of the uncertainty which was made by the process technics and manufacturing error,the drift and the diffusion parameters were described as stochastic variables,and the bias correction estimate was obtained using bootstrap method.And then,the sample path was simulated based on the established model.At last,the life prediction and residual life prediction were performed at the uncertain failure threshold.The model provides a method for the degradation modeling and life prediction of momentum wheel,and the theory and method can be generalized for the degradation modeling and life prediction of some similar high reliability and long life products.