江苏省大丰县乡镇企业和小城镇的发展研究

Study on Development of Rural Enterprise and Small Township in Dafeng,Jiangsu

在定性研究的基础上,应用模糊数学最优控制、计量经济学和系统动力学等方法,把乡镇企业与小城镇联系起来作定量的研究,建立了由11个数学模型组成的模型体系。研究结果表明,乡镇工业的发展趋势与当地人的传统看法是不同的;商品生产和商品流通部门将协调发展;虽然乡镇工业和小城镇的发展趋势基本一致,但在1996年以前,农村城镇化水平还是滞后于农村工业化水平。为此,本文提出应明智地抛弃'进厂不进镇'的旧观念。

Based on the qualitative analysis,a quantitative research on rural enterprise and small township combined together is carried on by establishing a system of models composed of 11 series of mathematical models with fuzzy mathematics,optimal control,quantitative economics and system dyna- mics methods.The calculating results show that the tendency of rural indus- try development is different from the traditional view of native people and the commodity production will develop in coordination with the development of commodity service agency.Although the developing tendencies of rural industry and small township are basically unique,but the small town forming level will be lag a period to the rural industrialization level before 1996.Therefore,such an idea‘farmers may work in plant but can not be dwellers in the town’should be thrown away.