塔城市近47年气候变化特征

Characteristics of Climate Change in Tacheng in Recent 47 Years

利用塔城市1961～2007年地面气象资料,分析了47年来温度、降水、日照和风速的变化特征,结果显示,气温呈明显上升趋势,气温变化速率达0.50℃/10a,47年平均气温上升了约2.4℃。四季季平均气温整体上都呈上升趋势,冬季气温最为明显,线性增长率达0.85℃/10a;秋季次之,线性增温速率为0.58℃/10a;夏季线性增长速率为0.39℃/10a;春季线性增温速率最小为0.34℃/10a,年平均最高气温的年代际变化呈波动式上升特征,增温率为0.37℃/10a。春、夏、秋、冬的线性增温率分别为0.217、0.266、0.488和0.540℃/10a。平均最低气温年代际变化与平均最高气温年代际变化比较相似。近47年来,年降水量呈增加趋势,降水量倾向率3.49 mm/10a,年降水量变化的波动较为明显,春、夏季降水量变化不太明显,秋季降水量有明显的减少趋势,冬季降水量上升趋势最明显,对全年降水量上升趋势贡献最大,其次为春季。近47年来,平均日照时数有明显的下降趋势,其变化速率为-21.1 h/10a。年平均风速呈较小的减弱趋势,减少速率仅为-0.08 m/s.10a。

Based on ground meteorological data in Tacheng during 1961-2007,and variation features of temperature,precipitation,sunshine and wind speed in recent 47 years were analyzed.The results showed that temperature showed rising trend,moreover,temperature change rate reached up to 0.50 ℃/10 a,average temperature increased by 2.4 ℃ in recent 47 years.In addition,seasonal average temperature showed rising trend generally,especially in winter,linear growth rate even reached up to 0.85 ℃/10 a;followed by autumn,the increasing rate of linear temperature was 0.58 ℃/10 a;in summer,linear growth rate was 0.39 ℃/10 a and the minimum increasing rate of linear temperature was 0.34 ℃/10 a.Inter-decadal change of annual average highest temperature showed fluctuation rising features,and temperature growth rate was 0.37 ℃/10 a.Linear temperature growth rate of spring,summer,autumn and winter were 0.217,0.266,0.488 and 0.540 ℃/10 a,respectively.Inter-decadal change of average minimum temperature was similar to that of average maximum temperature.In recent 47 years,annual precipitation showed increasing trend,and trend rate of precipitation was 3.49 mm/10 a,the fluctuation of annual precipitation variation was obvious,but there was not obvious in spring and spring,and the precipitation of winter showed obviously decreasing trend,in contrast,the precipitation of winter showed obviously increasing trend,which generated the greatest contribution for the rising trend of precipitation of the whole year,followed by spring.In recent 47 years,average sunshine hours showed obvious decreasing trend,and the variation rate was-21.1 h/10 a.Annual average wind speed showed decreasing trend slightly,and the decreasing trend rate was only-0.08 m/s·10 a.