1988～2008年内蒙古粮食产量影响因素比较

Comparative Study of Impacting Factors of Grain Production of Inner Mongolia Region in Different Periods

在灰色关联分析的基础上,筛选了粮食单产(X1)、粮食播种面积(X2)、农业劳动力(X3)、农业机械总动力(X4)、化肥施用量(X5)、农作物受灾面积(X6)、有效灌溉面积(X7)和农业固定资产投资(X8)8个对粮食生产影响较显著的因子来构建指标体系。根据1988～2008年《内蒙古统计年鉴》的相关数据,运用灰色关联分析法对影响内蒙古粮食生产的诸因素进行了关联分析,量化了粮食总产量与诸因素的关联程度,并依据关联度值,总结了各因素对粮食产量的影响能力。结果表明,粮食单产始终是影响内蒙古粮食总产量的主要因素;粮食播种面积和受灾面积是影响粮食产量减少的最主要因素;有效灌溉面积和农业机械总动力是影响粮食产量增加的首要因素;化肥施用量对粮食产量的的影响力在下降;农业固定资产投资对粮食产量的影响力始终很小。

On the basis of grey correlation analysis,8 factors impacting grain production prominently as follows are selected to establish indices system：yield per unit（1）,grain planting area（2）,agricultural labor forces（3）,the total power of agricultural machinery（4）,using amount of fertilizer（5）,the damaged area of crops（6）,effective irrigation area（7）,and agricultural fixed assets investment（8）.According to the relevant data of Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook from 1988 to 2008,we use the method of grey correlation analysis to analyze the factors impacting grain production in Inner Mongolia,quantify the correlation degree of the total grain output and all factors,and finally conclude the impacting capacity of all factors on grain production in the light of correlation degree value.The results show that yield per unit still is the principal factor impacting the total output of grain in Inner Mongolia;the area of grain planting and the area of affected crops are the two most important factors responsible for the decrease of grain output;effective irrigation area the total power of agricultural machinery are the two primary factors impacting the increase of grain output;the using amount of fertilizer shows dwindling impact on grain production;agricultural fixed assets investment still hovers at the minuscule impact degree on grain production.