基于灰色理论的产业结构调整与能源消费分析——以青海省为例

Analysis on Industry Structure Adjustment and Energy Consumption Based on Grey System theory

鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性及非线性的特征,针对青海省能源发展现状,运用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度定量地分析了能源消费与产业结构的关系,得出一、二、三产业及生活用能与能源消费的关联度,从而预测今后几年的能源消费趋势。结果表明,第二产业对能源消耗总和的关联度最大。最后,根据研究结果,对如何实现节约用能提出几点建议:在第二产业中大力提升高技术产业,限制高耗能、高污染工业的发展;倡导低碳经济生活方式,大力宣传节能,合理控制生活部门的能源消费量可有效降低能源消费量;在第三产业中积极推行清洁生产,大力发展循环经济。

In view of the complexity and non-linearity of energy consumption system and the status quo of the development of energy in Qinghai province,the relations between energy consumption and industrial structure is analyzed by using the quantitative analysis of grey relation degree by using the grey system theory.The relevancy degree among the primary industry,the secondary industry and the tertiary industry and living energy consumption are obtained,and then the trend of energy consumption in the following several years can be predicted.The results show that the secondary industry has the largest relevancy degree to the total energy consumption.In the end,according to the results of the research,several suggestions on how to saving energy are put forward.Firstly,the government should improve the high-tech industry and restrict the development of high-consumption and high-pollution industries.Secondly,the government should promote the low-carbon way of life;promote energy saving and control the energy consumption of the department of life.Thirdly,clean production should be actively promoted in the tertiary industry and the circular economy should be vigorously expanded.