基于灰色新陈代谢模型的我国棉花产量预测

Application of Gray Metabolic Forecast Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China

为预测2011年我国棉花产量,基于灰色预测建模思想和新陈代谢原理,建立了灰色新陈代谢预测模型,并结合实际情况分析了常规GM(1,1)模型和新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的预测结果,表明新陈代谢预测模型比常规预测模型精度高。用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测的我国2011年棉花产量为614.968 3万t。

In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011,Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory.According to the actual situation,forecast results of conventional GM（1,1） Model and Metabolism GM（1,1） Model are analyzed,showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model.Therefore,Metabolism GM（1,1） Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011,which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.