对2010年中美两国博弈的思考

A Reflection on China-US Gamesmanship in 2010

2010年的中美关系较2009年相比，可谓明显的“暖转冷”，摩擦、冲突不断。主要表现在美国不顾中国的核心利益，挑战中国南海主权、对人民币升值施压、在中国周边制造紧张局势等，这些做法理所当然遭到中国的坚决回击。美国对华示强，除了固有的不适应中国崛起的心理因素作怪外，还有着其亚太政策调整、国内对华强硬派得势、中期选举等原因。美国对华强硬并不意味着其“两面下注”的对华战略政策的调整，只是对华防范领域扩大。未来中美关系仍是合作对话、防范遏制与反遏制同时并存。

Compared with the year of 2009,2010 appears to be one in which 'warmth turning into coldness' with frictions and skirmishes in the relationship between China and the U.S.,which is quite evident in the cases of the U.S.defiance of China’s core interests,posing challenges to China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea,putting pressure on China to raise the value of RMB,and producing tension in China’s peripheries,and so on.Apart from America’s psychological elements of feeling unaccustomed to China’s rise,the US tougher stance towards China is associated with its readjustment in its Asia-Pacific policies,the American hardliners that have got the upper hand and the mid-term election in late 2010.However,it does not mean that the U.S.has changed its 'hedging' strategy toward China,but that it has enlarged its scope of strategic precaution against China.Looking into the future,China-US relations will go forward with a coexistence of cooperation with dialogue,and precautious and containing measures with counter-measures.