中国工业二氧化碳排放的影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting Industrial Carbon Dioxide Emission in China

以气候变暖为特征的全球气候变化问题日益严峻的情况下,二氧化碳排放研究已经受到各方关注。采用LMDI方法,利用中国1995-2007年工业能源消耗数据,分析了影响中国工业二氧化碳排放总量、人均工业二氧化碳排放量和工业二氧化碳排放强度的因素,结果表明:人口因素是拉动中国工业二氧化碳排放总量增加的主要因素,经济发展是拉动中国工业二氧化碳排放总量和人均工业二氧化碳排放量增加的拉动因素,能源消费结构是中国工业二氧化碳排放总量、人均工业二氧化碳排放量和工业二氧化碳排放强度增加的抑制因素,能源强度因素是中国工业二氧化碳排放总量和人均工业二氧化碳排放量的抑制因素,却是工业二氧化碳排放强度增加的拉动因素。为了实现二氧化碳减排,应改变能源结构,提高能源使用效率。

With an attempt to analyze the factors that may affect CO2 emission in the industrial sectors in China,a decomposition analysis method,LMD（Ilogarithmic mean Divisia index）,is introduced.Result shows that population is the main driving force that push the increase of industrial CO2 emission,while the economic development based on the data of energy consumption in China from 1995~2007 has decidedly boosted the total industrial CO2 emissions and per capita CO2 emission.According to the analysis,energy consumption structure and energy intensity are playing some role as restraining factor of CO2 emissions;however,the action of economic development is rather bigger than them,thus leading to the general trend（1995～2007） characterized by the increases of total industrial CO2 emissions and per capita CO2 emission.It is concluded that change of energy structure,and at the same time improvement of efficiency of energy use are an imperative task in order to achieve the goal of CO2 reduction.