高考志愿录取概率的实用模型

College Entrance Examination Practical Model for the Probability of Admission

高考是我国最重要的考试,它关系到千万考生的切身利益,而志愿填报是其中的关键环节。用近几年的历史数据为参考,考查当年的最低录取分数线和平均录取分数线,建立了录取概率模型。利用该概率模型,可以指导考生填报志愿,并以2009年四川省高考为例验证了该模型。结果表明:该模型能较好地适应实际高考录取情况,是正确的、可行的。

College entrance exam is one of the most important,it relates to the vital interests of millions of candidates,while voluntary reporting is the key link.In recent years,using historical data as a reference,then the minimum admission test scores and the average entry score,the establishment of admission probability model.Using the probability model can guide the candidates to declare voluntary,and the college entrance examination in 2009 in Sichuan Province as an example to demonstrate the model.The results showed that： the model can adapt to the actual situation of college admission is correct and feasible.