股价波动、通货膨胀与固定资产投资——基于协整和VEC模型的经验证据

经验证据表明,我国股票市场对全社会固定资产投资的影响作用还比较小,股票市场对固定资产投资的冲击在部分时段是负效应,可能存在部分"挤出效应"。而影响固定资产投资的主要因素是GDP的变动。另外在我国,通货膨胀率对固定资产投资的影响比较明显。从短期来看,固定资产投资也带动了通货膨胀。国内固定资产投资的波动不仅受偏离均衡的影响,还受到GDP、Cpi、上证综合指数与存款利率水平自身变动的影响。央行应加强审慎的宏观调控,优化信贷结构,加强农村水利建设的长期投资,为经济结构调整和经济增长方式的转变提供稳定的货币金融环境。

Empirical evidence shows that China＇s stock market in fixed asset investment is still relatively small influence, the stock market impact in fixed assets investment is a negative effect in some time, there may be some ＂crowding out effect. ＂ The impact in fixed assets investment is a major factor GDP changes. Also in China, the inflation rate on the impact in fixed assets investment is obvious. In the short term, fixed-asset investment has also led to inflation. The volatility of domestic fixed asset investment not only is influenced by the impact of deviation from equilibrium, but also by GDP, CPI, the Shanghai Composite Index and interest rate changes. In the future, the central bank should strengthen prudent macro-control, optimize credit structure and strengthen the long-term investment in water conservancy construction in rural areas for economic structural adjustment and economic growth pattern to provide a stable monetary and financial environment.