微观分析仿真的建模与在养老保险制度改革中的应用(续)

A Microanalysis Simulation Model and Its Application in Reforming Insurance System for O1d Age

作者介绍了微观分析仿真模型的基本思路和建模方法，并以烟台职工养老保险制度改革模型为应用实例，建立了人口状态模型和政策模型，提出了面对事件的仿真方法，从而将数据库系统作为仿真试验的平台。该文对人口状态模型的结构、微观数据文件、动态模型时化、跟踪与调整作了简要描述，并对政策模型的仿真目标、框架、政策条款分析、仿真参数的确定作了说明，最后给出了１９９６ 年－ ２０２５ 年期间人口、职工和退休人员的变化趋势和仿真执行养老保险制度改革政策的状况。

In this paper, the author has briefly explained the basic idea and method for microanalysis simulation model, which is then applied in the case of Yantai to study o1d age insurance system. With both populaiton state model and policy model, the paper introduced a method of event-oriented simulation based on a platform of database system. At the same time, it also described the structure of population state model, micro-data file, dynamic model aging, tracing and adjusting, and explained the targets, framework, and parameters of the policy model. Finally, the paper presented the simulation results to demonstrate the change trends of population, employees and retirees in the period of 1996-2025 and the corresponding situation in old age insurance.