基于灰色模型的故障预测方法研究

Research on Prognostic Method Based on GM

随着人们对系统发生故障所带来财产损失、人员伤亡以及危害性的无法承受,故障预测与健康管理(PHM)技术应用越来越广泛。介绍了灰色模型,并利用某型号发控设备压控振荡器电路检测积分器输入信号检测的历史数据作为研究依据,验证了灰色模型在故障预测中的应用是可行的,准确度能够达到要求。

With being unable to bear belongings losing, personnel casualty and serious harm brought by fault occurring in systems, application of prognostic and health management/monitoring （PHM） technology are more and more abroad. The Gray Model is introduced, and used the history data of a certain aerial defence missile launch and control equipment voltage controlled oscillator circuit check integrator input signal as study data to validate that it was viable the Gray Model was used to forecast fault. And its accuracy was very good.