基于AHP灰关联及GM(1,N)建模的静态网损因素分析

Analysis of Static Loss Factors Based on AHP-Gray Relation and GM(1,N) Model

提出利用变权灰关联技术分析电网静态网损因素与线损率指标之间关联度的思路,并建立GM(1,N)线损率预测模型.首先根据线损机理确定各因素对线损影响的权重,而后借助灰关联原理比较各因素与线损率的关联度,最后优选强关联因素建立线损率预测模型,用于配网线损率预测及相关因素指标优化的降损潜力分析.算例表明,灰关联分析准确,模型预测精度高.该分析方法所需样本少,计算便捷,适用于指导电网节能评估及规划.

Proposed in this paper is an idea of analyzing the correlation degree between static loss factors and line loss rate through gray relation（GR） with variable weights,and a GM（1,N） model for predicting the line loss rate.In this method,first,the impact weights of various factors on the line loss are determined based on the loss mechanism.Then,the relationships between various factors and the line loss rate are compared via the GR method.Finally,strongly-correlated factors are picked to establish a loss-rate model for the prediction of distribution line loss rate and loss reduction potential due to relevant factor optimization.Case analyses show that both the GR analysis and the prediction is of high accuracy,and that the proposed method requires fewer samples and less computation,so that it provides a useful guidance for the energy-saving evaluation and planning of power network.