对外贸易和外商直接投资对中国人力资本存量影响的实证研究——基于岭回归分析法

Influence of Foreign Trade and FDI on Human Capital in China:An Empirical Study based on Ridge Regression Analysis Method

文章首先建立模型,然后利用我国1983～2008年的时间序列数据,运用岭回归法实证研究了对外贸易和外商直接投资对人力资本存量的影响。结果发现,进口贸易显著地提升了我国人力资本;出口贸易对人力资本的正面影响系数很小;外商直接投资有利于人力资本的提升,但提升的幅度较小;国内生产总值和教育经费增加有助于提升人力资本。最后,文章给出了对策:调整"轻进口重出口"的贸易政策;调整引资的政策思路;保持经济平稳增长,增加人力资本投资。

First of all,the article builds models,and then uses 1983～2008 year time series data of our country with ridge regression analysis in the empirical study on influence of foreign trade and FDI on the human capital.The conclude shows that the import trade obviously has promoted our country human capital,the effect of export trade on the human capital is positive but weak,FDI improves human capital but it is limited,the increase of GDP and education budget are helpful to the promotion of human capital.Finally,the article has given the countermeasure that we should adjust trade policies which lay and place emphasis on export more than on import,and rectify policies of attracting foreign investment,maintain the economy growth steadily and increase investment in the human capital.