中国对美国出口商品的比较优势及其稳定性分析

An Analysis on China's Comparative Advantage in Exports to US and its Stability

本文采用Lall(2000)对产品的分类方法,细分产品到SITC四位数,利用区域显性比较优势指数,分析了1987～2006年中国对美国各类出口商品比较优势的变动情况,并详细分析了2006年中国各类出口商品在美国市场上比较优势的分布状况。然后,文章利用联合密度分布、回归分析、面板单位根检验等3种方法对中国对美国出口比较优势的稳定性进行了逐步深入的检验,一个总体的结论是,从整体上很难判断中国对美国出口比较优势的稳定性状况,不过在制成品内部,中技术产品和高技术产品的比较优势已经发生了变化。

Segmenting products to SITC 4-digit with the classification of Lall(2000),with RRCA index the paper analyzes the variations of comparative advantage of all kinds of China's exports to US from 1987 to 2006 and the distributions of comparative advantage of China's exports in the US market in 2006.Then,using joint density distribution,regression analysis and panel unit root test,the paper gradually deeply tests the stability of comparative advantage of China's exports to US.An overall conclusion is that it is difficult to judge from the whole the stability of comparative advantage of China's exports to US.However,among the manufactured goods,the comparative advantage of medium technology products and high technology products has changed.