基于随机Petri网的生产提前期牛鞭效应测度研究

Research on the Lead Time Bullwhip Effect Measurement Based on Stochastic Petri Nets

利用随机Petri网结合三角模糊参数,对产品生产的三工艺阶段生产周期的波动进行测定,得出前工艺阶段生产周期的波动造成后工艺阶段生产周期更大的波动,且波动逐级传递。证实了生产提前期也具有类似供应链中的牛鞭效应的现象,对不确定因素导致生产周期波动的测度提供了一种新的思路和方法。

Using stochastic Petri nets and triangular fuzzy parameters,this paper measures the fluctuation of the three stages of production cycle,and it conforms that the deviation of preceding production cycle leads to a greater deviation of the next production cycle.The fluctuation transfers from a stage to a subsequent stage in the whole production process,and it is amplified gradually.The phenomenon is similar to the bullwhip effect in supply chain.This paper provides a new way of thinking and method about measuring the fluctuation of production cycle caused by uncertainty factors.