沥青路面使用性能评价和养护对策确定的Fuzzy方法

The Use of Fuzzy Sets Mathematics in Performance Evaluation and M&R Strategy Selection of Asphalt Pavements

路面使用性能评价和养护对策确定过程中存在着许多不确定性,模糊性便是其中的一个重要方面;本文则是试图采用数学方法来描述这种模糊性。首先,本文以各使用性能参数的确定性评级为基础,将认为路面使用性能应被评为某种等级的专家的比例定义为路面使用性能对该评级的隶属度,采用多相模糊统计等方法建立了各指标对不同评级的隶属函数,继而导出了路面使用性能的综合评价矩阵。根据该评价矩阵,再考虑交通量的模糊评价和基层类型,本文提出了确定各对策隶属度的方法。该方法将一种路面状态与一组不同优先级的对策相对应,从而描述了不同对策对同一路面状态的适用性,为决策者提供了更大的选择余地。

There exist lots of uncertainties during evaluating the pavement performance and selecting the M&R strategies in pavement management system. This paper is intended to offer a methodology to account for such vagueness by using fuzzy sets mathematics. The proportion of raters, who rate certain performance attribute of pavements as i level, to the whole rating group is defined as the grade of membership of that performance attribute to i level. Based on the subjective ratings of various performance attributes by expert panel, the membership functions of those performance attributes to various rating levels are created by using polyphase fuzzy statistics, and an aggregate matrix, composed of four state vectors (deflection, roughness, pavement condition index, and major distress mode), for pavement performance evaluation is then derived. An approach to estimate the grade of membership of various M&R strategies is also proposed, based upon the performance evaluation matrix, traffic and base type, which may offer more options on M&R strategies to decision-makers.