岩溶泉流量的动态分析及非线性随机模型的应用

Regime Analysis of Discharge of the Karstic Spring and the Use of the Nonlinear Stochastic Model

岩溶泉的动态分析是建立模拟泉流量随机数学模型的基础,本文以山西龙子泉为例,用相关函数、关联度、频谱等分析方法,对该泉流量与降水量的关系进行了研究,在揭示该泉动态特征的基础上建立了该泉流量的非线性随机数学模型。

On the basis of the analysis of geological and hydro-geological conditions in the Longzici spring basin area, the hydrogeological conceptual model is established. The spring discharge regime is revealed in depth by means of the connection degree analysis in gery system theory, the cross-correlation function analysis and the spectral analysis, which provides the essential information and basis for establishing stochastic mathematical models of the spring regime. The application of nonlinear time series model, that is, threshold autoregressive model to simulating the spring discharge regime is emphatically discussed, and the selfexciting threshold autoregressive model and the mixed threshold autoregressive model are presented. The models established can be used for forecasting the spring discharge regime and further analysing the hydrogeological conditions.