我国通货膨胀预期的微观基础研究

Research on Micro-foundations of Chinese Inflation Expectations

通货膨胀预期的微观基础是一个重要的理论问题和实践问题,但至今相关的研究还非常少。本文采用中国人民银行的《居民储蓄问卷调查系统》数据库,从经济主体的经济特征和人口统计特征两方面详细研究哪些因素会显著影响居民通货膨胀预期。研究结果表明:人们对未来家庭经济状况的信心、风险厌恶程度和金融参与及熟悉度、家庭所处阶层、人们对现阶段经济运行状况的满意程度以及最近家庭所处的经济环境都是形成异质性通货膨胀预期的重要原因。研究结果对于制定更加科学的货币政策和加强通货膨胀预期管理具有重要的参考价值。

The micro-foundations of inflation expectations are important theoretical and practical issues,but there are very little researches on these issues so far.This paper makes use of the Consumers Saving Survey System conducted by the People’s Bank of China to analyze what factors significantly affect inflation expectations of residents from two aspects which are economic characteristics and demographic characteristics of economic agents.The results show that confidence in the future household economic condition,the degree of risk aversion,financial participation,familiarity with financial market,and the class that household belongs to,satisfaction with the present macro economic situation,and the present economic situation of the household are all important reasons for heterogeneity of inflation expectations.The results are of important value to monetary policy making and the management of inflation expectations.