我国货币供应与经济增长及物价水平关系研究

The Research of Relationship among Money Supply and Economic Growth and the Price in China

本文采用协整、向量误差模型以及脉冲响应和方差分解的方法对中国货币供应、物价水平与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。研究表明,物价水平在长期中对经济增长的负影响明显,在短期内,也存在负面影响,但影响方向不明显;短期内物价水平与货币供应量之间相互影响,互相促进。货币供应对经济增长的影响具有促进效应,长期内货币非中性。此外,向量误差模型也表明经济增长、货币供应和物价水平都受到自身滞后期的影响,经济发展具有长期且趋于稳定的特性。

This paper uses cointegation,VEC model and impulse response methods to research the relationship among money supply,price and economic growth.The results show that the price has significantly negative effect on economic growth in long run,and insignificant effect in short run.And in short time,the price and money supply impact and improve each other.Money supply has the positive effect on economic growth,the money is non-neutral.Besides,the VEC model shows economic growth,money supply and price are impacted by the laggings,while economic development is inclined to be stable in the long run.