关于我国生育政策与生育水平的几点思考

Pondering over China′s FP Policy and the Fertility Rate

通过回顾梳理现存文献和进行国际比较认为,中国的总和生育率已经大大低于更替水平,且现行生育政策仅能有效控制大约6%的育龄妇女。在低生育水平已持续了近20年、理想子女数大约仅为2个孩子、现行生育政策对个体生育行为的控制作用大大减弱的情势下,未来维持低生育水平主要取决于经济社会的发展。只要能够有效控制各类人群的第三胎生育,推行现行生育政策与"放宽二孩、杜绝三孩"的生育政策之间差别就不会大;而如果超生是某些人的特权,就既会大大降低生育政策的公信力,也不利于稳定适度的低生育水平。

The author′s comprehensive review of existing studies and comparisons between at home and abroad have resulted in the findings that China′s total fertility rate（TFR） has been much lower than the replacement level;and only about 6% among women of bearing age have been effectively controlled by the present policy.Given that China′s low TFR has lasted for about 20 years,that individuals′ ideal number of children now is about two,and that the enforcement of the policy on individuals′ fertility behavior has dropped off from its early years,the future maintenance of the low fertility level will be mainly determined by socioeconomic development.If the 3rd child can be restricted to all the population without any exemption,there won′t be any vital difference whether implementing the relaxed two-child policy or carrying out the present one;if,nevertheless,disregard or violation of the policy is still some people′s privilege,public trust in the policy will be eroded,and the stable and moderate low fertility will be affected.