灰色理论在我国化工园区事故预测中的应用

Application of Gray Theory to Accident Predication in China's Chemical Engineering Zone

根据我国化工园区事故统计数据,运用灰色系统理论建立我国化工事故数和伤亡人数的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型;通过关联度检验,结果表明:模型的预测精度良好;用模型对我国化工园区的安全状况进行预测,得出事故发生数以及伤亡人数的预测值,并做出了变化曲线,表明我国化工事故数及伤亡人数呈上升的趋势;经分析,这主要是由于近几年我国大量兴建化工园区,而园区规划不完善、安全投入不足以及监管力量薄弱等原因导致的。

According to accident statistical data in China＇s chemical engineering zone,gray theory is used to set up GM（1,1） Gray Predication Model of the number of accidents and casualties of China＇s chemical engineering.By association degree test,the results show that this model has good predication accuracy.This model is used to predict the safety status of China＇s chemical engineering zone,the predication value of the number of accidents and casualties is obtained,and the change curve is devised,which reveal that the number of accidents and casualties is rising.The analysis shows that the reason for the rise is that,in recent years,China builds a lot of chemical engineering zones but the plan for the zones is not complete,that the investment in safety is insufficient,that the supervision on the safety is weak and so on.