乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法在男性同性恋人群基数估计中的比较应用

Application of multiplier method and capture-mark-recapture method in estimating the size of male homosexual population

目的通过调查估计广东省某地男性同性恋人群规模,探讨适合男性同性恋人群的基数估计方法。方法按场所分层,确定6家活动场所为目标机构,分别应用乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法对广东省某地男性同性恋人群规模进行估计。结果乘数法估计结果为24 893（95%CI：22 042-28 561）人;捕获-标记-再捕获法估计结果为30 978（95%CI：12 249-49 698）人。结论运用乘数法对男性同性恋人群规模进行估计经济易行、结果可信;捕获-标记-再捕获法用时短,花费较低,但满足应用条件较困难。

Objective To investigate the male homosexual population in one city of Guangdong province and explore the more suitable method on estimating the size of male homosexual population.Methods The multiplier method and capture-mark-recapture method were applied to estimate the size of male homosexual population in one city of Guangdong Province.Results The estimates of the size of male homosexual population through multiplier method and capture-mark-recapture method were 24 893（95% CI：22 042～28 561） and 30 978（95% CI：12 249～49 698） respectively.Conclusions Application of multiplier method is economic,simple and high credibility.Capture-mark-recapture method is both in economizes and time saving,but the application conditions is difficult to satisfy.