中国通货膨胀、消费水平与经济增长关系实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Inflation,Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth

本文使用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型对我国通货膨胀、居民消费水平和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明通货膨胀对经济增长的影响随时间由正变负,而经济增长对通货膨胀具有持续推动作用;通货膨胀与居民消费水平具有双向Granger因果关系。因此,在当前我国消费需求不足的情况下,提高居民消费水平不仅是转变投资驱动型经济增长方式的重要手段,也是缓解通货膨胀和经济增长矛盾的有效途径。

The paper makes empirical research on the relationship between inflation,household consumption expenditure and economic growth with the Structural VAR model.It shows that the effect of inflation on economic growth turns from positive to negative as time goes by.However,the economic growth has lasting positive effects on inflation.Inflation and household consumption expenditure are Granger cause of each other.Under the condition of insufficient household consumption demand,raising household consumption expenditure is an important means to changing the investment-driven way of economic growth,and is also an effective way to ease the contradiction between inflation and economic growth.