通胀、通胀预期和货币政策——基于中国2001—2010年数据的实证研究

Inflation,Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy——An Empirical Study Based on China data of 2001-2010

文章用两种方法测度了我国通胀预期:(1)未来物价预期指数衡量通胀预期;(2)ARMA模型对通胀的预测值。并计量分析了影响通胀预期的因素,结果显示:CPI上升、正产出缺口增加和广义货币供应量增加,是形成通胀预期的主要因素。利率、人民币汇率和食品价格对通胀预期的形成作用不显著和影响较小。因此,存款准备金率动态微调,是目前管理好通胀预期的最好选择。

This paper measures the inflation expectations from 2001 to 2010 in two ways： （ 1 ） future price expectation index from central bank by statistics; （2） future CPI got from ARMA model. Then, the paper analyzes the factors that affect the inflation expectations. The empirical results indicate that high and climbing inflation, positive output gap growth, M2 growth could easily seep into people~ anticipa- tion of future inflation. The best choice at present is Chinese central bank takes money amount dynamic fine - tuning policy based on the deposit reserve rate smoothing to control inflation expectations.