我国通货膨胀的测度及其影响因素的实证分析——兼论我国现阶段的通货膨胀形势

China's Inflation Measure and Empirical Analysis on Inflation Influential Factors——Also an Analysis on China's Current Inflation Situation

2010年下半年以来,我国日益严峻的通胀形势引起广泛关注。文章首先通过对5个主要价格指数1990-2010年的数据进行因子分析,得到的通胀—紧缩因子作为对通货膨胀的测度。进而建立多变量时间序列变动因素分析模型对影响通货膨胀的11个指标进行实证分析,得到三个公因子即成本及经济增长因子、需求因子和货币因子,并通过计量回归模型得出这些因子对我国通货膨胀的量化影响。文章还讨论了我国现阶段的通胀形势,对我国的通货膨胀的容忍区间进行了分析,认为现阶段我国通货膨胀在1.87%～4.87%范围内是合理的。

Since the second half of 2010, increasing inflation caused wide concern. This paper chooses main price index of 1990 -2010 data for factor analysis, gets a result as inflation - deflation as inflation measure. Based on the empirical analysis of a multi - variable time series analysis model of factors influencing changes in 11 indicators of inflation, the paper gets three common factors which are the cost and economic increase factors, demand factors and monetary factors. Furthermore, this paper explores the effect of those factos on inflation through regression model. Finally, the article discusses the situation of Chinese current inflation, analyzes the inflation tolerance range, and finds that inflation between 1.87% and 4. 87% is reasonable.