中国沿海省市风暴潮经济损失风险区划研究

Research on division of storm surge lost risk of coastal provinces,China

风暴潮是我国沿海省市面临的重大自然灾害之一,造成了难以估量的损失。本文选取1989～2008年沿海11省、市、自治区风暴潮历史数据作为研究样本,运用因子得分基础上的聚类分析和熵值评价等方法,对沿海省市风暴潮灾害经济损失风险进行评估,最终按风暴潮灾害的经济损失程度将沿海省市划分为三个区域:即上海为第一区,表示风暴潮经济损失风险最小;海南、福建、浙江、广东四省为第三区,风险最大;其他省、市、自治区为第二区,表示经济损失风险居中。三区域的灾害区划,为我们从更深层次认识风暴潮发生及造成的损失情况提供了新的视角。

The storm surges is one of the major natural disasters in our country,which has caused the incalculable loss.In this paper,the storm surge data of 11 coastal provinces（or autonomous region,municipality） from 1989 to 2008 as a research sample are selected,while the cluster analysis based on the factor scores and evaluation of entropy methods are used to evaluate the disaster risk of storm surge in the coastal provinces,China.The conclusion of the three divisions follows： Shanghai has the smallest risk of storm surge disaster for the First District.The provinces of Hainan,Fujian,Zhejiang and Guangdong have the greatest risk for the Second District.The other provinces（or autonomous region,municipality） have the medial risk for the Third District.This result gives us a new perspective to understand the occurrence of storm surge and the loss caused by it.