车辆技术状态预测的模型化方法

Modeling Method for Prediction of Technological Conditions of Vehicles

建立了评价铁道车辆技术状态等级的概率模型，为估计当前和预测未来车辆技术状态等级及其分布提供了直观有效的方法，并在此基础上，为车辆管理和检修制度的改革提出了建议。

The probability model to evaluate the grade of technical conditions of rolling stock is set up.It provides an objective and effective method to estimate the present and predict the future grades,as well as their distribution.And on this basis,suggestions are given for the reform of rolling stock run and the inspection & maintenance system.