浙江省经济增长的环境代价之测度——基于长期均衡视角的环境库兹涅茨效应研究

The Measure of the Environmental Costs of Economic Growth in Zhejiang Province——A Long-term Balanced Perspective Based on Effects of Environmental Kuznets Curve

利用浙江省1985—2009年的数据,从协整的角度检验了浙江省经济增长与环境污染之间的长期环境库兹涅茨(EKC)效应,并运用基于VECM的Granger因果检验法分析了浙江省经济增长与"三废"之间的因果关系。结果表明,浙江省的环境污染与经济增长之间存在长期均衡的关系,其中废气排放量符合EKC的"倒U"型形态,而废水排放量、工业固体废弃物生产量与经济增长之间的曲线形态则为"N型"。同时表明浙江省的经济增长是导致环境污染的原因,但污染排放并不是经济增长的原因。

Based on the statistical data during 1985—2009 of Zhejiang Province,this paper tests the long-term form of EKC between Zhejiang Province＇s economic growth and environmental pollution from the perspective of co-integration.Also the paper explores the two-way relationship between Zhejiang economic growth and the ＂three wastes＂ based on the VECM Granger causality.The results show that the long-term equilibrium relationship exists between Zhejiang Province＇s environmental pollution and economic growth.The EKC of industrial waste gas emissions is inverted-U-shape,and the ＂N-type＂ relationships are founded between wastewater emissions and industrial solid waste production.At the same time,the conclusions show that Zhejiang＇s economic growth has resulted to the environment pollution,but the pollution emissions are not the cause of economic growth.