鄱阳湖流域洪水遭遇规律和危险度初步研究

Preliminary Study on Flood Combination Rules and Hazards in the Poyang Lake Basin

分析了鄱阳湖流域洪水产生的机理和洪水遭遇情况,基于灾变度概念建立了2个评价指标,定量评价鄱阳湖流域洪水遭遇造成的危险程度。结果表明:洪水遭遇构成的危险程度随研究范围的扩大而增加;洪水过程遭遇比峰值遭遇会造成更大的危险;鄱阳湖洪水过程若与长江洪水过程遭遇,危险度约增加150%。

The mechanisms of flooding and flood combinations were discussed in the Poyang Lake basin. Based on the concept of catastrophe degree, two indices were introduced to evaluate quantitatively the hazard caused by flood combinations. The application results show that the flood combination hazards increase with the expansion of investigating area; the flood bydrograph combinations lead a greater hazard than that of flood peak combination; and the hazard degree would increase by 150% if flood hydrograph of the Poyang Lake basin is encountered with the Yangtze River flood hydrograph.