时间序列分析在儋州橡胶产量预测上的运用

Application of Time-series Analysis to Predict Rubber Production in Danzhou

运用时间序列方法对海南省儋州市l980～2003年的天然橡胶干胶产量情况进行分析,以此建立并验证儋州市天然橡胶干胶产量预测模型,并运用该模型对2004～2010年的橡胶干胶产量进行预测。结果表明:建立的模型能基本反映儋州橡胶产量的基本规律;但是随着预测时间的推移,以及其他因素的影响,预测结果的准确性随之下降,因此必须将新数据进行重新分析,建立新模型,以确保得到最佳的预测效果。通过该预测法为橡胶生产提供科学的管理依据,为橡胶产业决策提供基本的参考依据。

Time series method was used to analyze the dry rubber production in Danzhou, Hainan from 1980 to 2003, based on which a prediction model for dry rubber production in Danzhou was made and verified. And the model was used to predict the dry rubber production from 2004 to 2010. The result showed that the model displayed the basic pattern of rubber production in Danzhou, however, with the passage of time, plus the effect of other mixed factors, the accuracy of the prediction decreased. Therefore, in order to assure the best prediction result, new statistical data have to be collected and new model has to be made. This prediction method provides a scientific management foundation for rubber production, and provides reference information for rubber industry in decision-making aspect.