阿克苏地区生态足迹分析与动态预测

Analysis and dynamic prediction for ecological footprint of Aksu region

利用生态足迹分析方法对阿克苏地区1998～2007年的生态足迹进行计算和分析研究,并运用SAS 8.1软件对其做线性回归分析,在此基础上对阿克苏地区未来10年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行动态预测分析。结果表明:阿克苏地区近十年内人均生态承载力逐步下降,人均生态足迹则逐步上升,目前阿克苏地区人均生态足迹已经超过人均生态承载力,生态赤字出现,并将呈现持续扩大的趋势,阿克苏地区目前的发展处于一种不可持续状态。线性回归模型显示:2008～2017年阿克苏地区的人均生态足迹由2008年的3.2412hm2上升到2017年的4.8963hm2,人均生态承载力则由2008年的2.2792hm2下降到2017年的1.8058hm2,生态赤字严重增大。基于以上分析得出阿克苏地区的可持续发展状况面临越来越严重的挑战,为此提出减少生态赤字,维持可持续发展的可行性措施。

The research is aimed to analyze and calculate the ecological footprint of Aksu Region from 1998 to 2007,dynamically predict the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Aksu Region in the future of 10 years by using Linear Regression Analysis Technology based on the software SAS8.1.The results showed that the ecological capacity per capita of Aksu Region declines progressively,but the ecological footprint per capita ascended progressively.At present,the ecological footprint per capita has surpassed the ecological capacity per capita of Aksu Region,so the ecological deficit appeared and will be increase.Aksu Region is in the state of unsustainable development.The Linear Regression Analysis Technology showed that the ecological footprint per capita of Aksu Region would be increased from 3.2412 hm^2 in 2008 to 4.8963 hm^2 in 2017.The ecological capacity per capita would be decreased from 2.2792 hm^2 in 2008 to 1.8058 hm^2 in 2017.The above analysis showed that it is a strong challenge to the state of sustainable development of Aksu Region,and it is very emergent to take some measures to reduce the ecological deficit.