玛纳斯河流域绿洲区气候变化特征分析与预测

Variation of temperature and precipitation in recent 44 years in the oases in Manas River Basin

利用1964～2007年玛纳斯河流域绿洲区5个气象台站逐月气温、降水数据,建立玛河流域绿洲区年均气温、降水序列,利用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall等方法分析研究区44年来气温、降水的变化特征。并利用均生函数预测模型对研究区未来5年气温、降水变化进行预测。结果表明:1)玛河流域绿洲区近44a来气温呈显著上升趋势,倾向率为0.47℃/10a。年均降水量在波动中呈缓慢增加趋势,倾向率为13mm/10a。2)研究区显著偏暖和偏暖集中出现在1989年以后,降水异常偏多和显著偏多集中出现在1987年以后。说明玛河流域绿洲区气候自1987年以来呈暖湿化趋势。3)气温、降水变化存在显著的季节性差异,夏季从60年代至今持续升温,且秋季温度升高对于年平均气温上升的贡献最大。冬季降水量持续增多,降水距平百分率最大值出现在21世纪初,为48.57%。4)研究区年均气温在1990年发生了从低到高的突变,降水没有发生显著突变。5)均生函数预测模型拟合效果很好,可用于研究区气温和降水量的预测。

In this paper,the series of annual temperature and precipitation in the oases in Manas River Basin,Xinjiang,China,were developed using the monthly data from 5 meteorological stations in the oases in Manas River Basin during the period of 1964~2007.The basic features of climate change were analyzed using the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall statistic,MGF,et a1.The main results were as follows：（1） Temperature and precipitation were both increased significantly.The annual temperature and precipitation in the area were increasing at the trends rate of 0.47℃/10 and 13mm/10a respectively.The warm-dry and warm-wet were emerged by turns since the signal that the weather became warm and wet in 1978.（2）The change of air temperature and precipitation showed seasonal difference obviously.The air temperature in summer from 1960s had increased constantly,and the increasing of temperature in autumn had contributed tremendously the most to the annual average value.Precipitation in winter had increased continually;the max of anomaly percentage was 48.57% in winter in early in the 21th century.（3） The temperature changed abruptly in 1990 and the precipitation had not significantly changed in these 44 years with the Mann-Kendall test.（4）The predicted amount of temperature and precipitation from the established MGF model indicated that there is an upward trend of the annual temperature and the decline of precipitation in 2008~2012.