从供给约束型经济向需求约束型经济的转变——1952年以来中国经济态势初探

Transformation from Supply-constrained Economy to Demand-constrained Economy:An Exploration of China’s Economic Situations since 1952

一国处于供给约束型经济还是需求约束型经济态势下,是研究其经济运行的基本前提,是一切理论模型前提假设的上位前提,这关乎能否正确应用理论框架的大问题。首先应从总供求与价格的关系、贸易条件和马勒条件等角度对特定时空的经济态势做出相应的逻辑判断,然后再用计量方法证实这一判断,从而认定这一经济时空属供给约束型还是需求约束型。分析表明,到1995年,中国始终处于供给约束型经济态势之下,储蓄严重不足,经济增长的关键在于总供给;自1996年始,转变为需求约束型,储蓄大于投资,经济增长的发动机是总需求。

It is a basic prerequisite for studying a country’s economic operation to make clear whether a country’s econ-omy is of supply-constrained or demand-constrained style.This is also a fundamental premise for establishing and applying a certain theoretical framework in such studies.Firstly,we should accordingly make a logical judgment of the economic situation at a given time based on the relation between aggregate supply and price,terms of trade and Marshall-Lerner condition.Then we are to confirm this judgment using econometric techniques to make sure that it is ＂supply-constrained＂ or ＂demand con-strained＂ at that time.Analyses show China’s economy till 1995 was under a supply-constrained economic structure in which savings were in so shortage that economic growth was largely dependent upon aggregate supply.Since 1996,China’s economy has turned into a ＂demand-constrained＂ one with large savings which exceed investment.Consequently aggregate demand has become the engine of economic growth.