英法德意四国消费对经济增长的贡献度研究——基于20世纪60—80年代联立方程模型的分析

Consumption’s Contribution to Economic Growth in Britain,France,Germany and Italy:A Study based on the Simultaneous Equation Model in 1960-1980

通过对英法德意四国消费和经济增长关系之规律分析,发现四国消费和经济增长近似同步变动,因为双方互为因果,双向正反馈,并且消费对经济增长之作用力呈现逐次降低态势,而经济增长对消费作用力则呈现"倒V"形态。高消费高增长相伴而生,其基础条件是稳定而良好的社会保障制度,一个产业就让百姓倾其所有的政策是不能使经济得到稳定而长期的发展,这是典型的舍本逐末,是经济发展的短视策略。

Analysis of the laws of consumption-economic growth relations in Britain,France,Germany and Italy shows that the four countries’ consumption is appropriate to economic growth in terms of causality of both sides,which is positive.What’s more,the effect of consumption on economic growth is becoming progressively weak and the inverted V situation ap-pears.High consumption and rapid growth are concomitants,guaranteed by a stable social security system.It is well known that the industry cannot gain a long-term stable development if the policy cannot benefit people.Such a policy is definitely im-proper and short-sighted.