湖北省宜昌市38年钩端螺旋体病流行周期性的论证

Demonstration for periodicity of leptospirosis in Yichang City of Hubei Province during 1960-1997

目的 了解钩端螺旋体病（ 钩体病） 发病周期性规律。方法 采用周期图法分析了宜昌市１９６０ ～１９９７ 年钩体病疫情资料。结果 宜昌市３８ 年来钩体病年发病率为１５ ．４３／１０ 万，流行周期为１０ 年，周期振动有统计学上显著性意义（Ｊ＝ ４．１７９，Ｐ＜ ０ ．０５） 。结论 这为掌握钩体病流行规律，有效控制疫情提供依据。

Objective To study the periodicity of leptospirosis incidence. Methods Data of leptospirosis epidemics in Yichang City collected during the past 38 years from 1960 to 1997 were analyzed with periodic graphics method. Results Cause-specific incidence rate of leptospirosis was 15.43 per 100 000 in average, with an epidemic interval of 10 years, with statistical significance in periodic vibration ( J = 4.179 , P < 0.05 ). Conclusion The results mentioned above provided scientific basis for the effective control and prevention of the disease.