摘要
By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than MS6. 0 in a short time. Before the MS8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake,there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes.
By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan, short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than Ms6. 0 in a short time. Before the Ms8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake, there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes.
基金
supported by the National Basic ResearchProgram (973 Program),entitled Global deep geophysical field and the relation between its geodynamic effect and Wenchuan Earthquake
