财政支农结构对农村居民消费的影响分析

Analysis in the Effect of Rural Fiscal Support Structure on Rural Consumption

财政支农对农村居民消费的影响可能为正也可能为负。本文利用VAR方法对财政支农不同部分对农村居民消费的影响进行了考察。结果表明:(1)从长期来看,支援农村生产支出和农林水利气象事业费、农业科技三项费的支出对农村居民消费产生了"挤入效应",而农村基本建设支出和农村救济费对农村居民消费产生了"挤出效应"。(2)从冲击大小来看,事业费对农村居民消费的贡献最大,农业科技三项费用次之,农村救济费第三,农村基本建设支出最小。最后提出扩大农村居民消费的政策建议是:增大财政支农力度,农村财政支出占财政总支出的比重应保持稳定增长;优化财政农业支出结构,加大事业费和科技费在财政支农支出中的比重;财政支农支出通过支持农业生产和提高农业综合生产能力能间接地增加农村居民收入,从而带动消费增长。所以应利用财政支农功能带动农民收入的增加。

The impact on the consumption of rural residents of agricultural financial support may be positive, or negative. This paper uses VAR methods investigated agriculture consumption of rural residents on different parts of the agricultural financial support. The results showed that： （ I ） In the long-term, expenditure on operating and science ＆ technology promotion rural consumption as a＂ crowds in effect＂ , while the expenditure on infrastructure and relief as a ＂ crowds out effect＂ . （ 11 ） from the size of impact, expenditure on operating contribution to rural consumption is the largest and science ＆ technology second, the third relief, infrastructure minimum. Finally, policy recommendations： Increase the intensity of agricultural fiscal support, the proportion of rural financial expenditure in total financial expenditure should remain growth stably. Optimize the financial structure of agricultural expenditure, increase the proportion of expenditures operating expenses and technology costs in agricultural fiscal support; Agricultural fiscal expenditures can indirectly increase the income of rural residents through support the agricultural produce and improve comprehensive agricultural production capacity, thereby stimulating consumption. Therefore, the function of agricultural fiscal support should be used to increase income of farmers.